(03-11-2014, 12:00 PM)Shonumi Wrote:(03-11-2014, 08:09 AM)teh_speleegn_polease Wrote: Anyway, back on topic, if we extend the prediction from 10 years on from today to 20+, I think that at some point, x86 is gonna go. It just can't stay forever. The change, however, will probably be gradual, and so there will be plenty of time for Dolphin to get ported to the new system.
And it will be replaced with... what? A gradual change to... what? If you imagined a better version with backwards compatibility, then conceivably yes, it could happen. By why does x86 have to go? Why can't it stay forever, or at least as long as it needs to be around (which is most likely more than 20 years)? If it just has to go away because change just has to happen eventually, that's quite short on specifics. Some things, even in the fast-paced world of computer science, don't change, either not at all or not very often.
I'm just thinking that it would be weird if 100 years from now, all computers ran almost the same way they do today. And no, I don't have a plausible prediction about what will replace it.
NaturalViolence Wrote:You're making a lot of dangerous assumption here.I know, and this isn't meant to be a realistic way of predicting when quantum computing will emerge (especially since, as you said, it will be a gradual event).
NaturalViolence Wrote:No matter how much time and money they put in it could fail. And no matter how much time and money they put in it will likely never become common.
Well, I guess I should have put this clearer:
teh_speleegn_polease Wrote:provided they become widespread at all,I am not assuming that quantum computing WILL inevitably happen no matter what. I am only assuming that for the purpose of the discussion of what will happen IF it does emerge, not to have to litter every sentence with phrases like the one I just quoted. I guess I should have made that clearer.
NaturalViolence Wrote:Your "absurd answer" is a miracle.
About as much of a miracle as winning the lottery every day for 2 years. Except that in theory, winning the lottery for 2 years is possible, while quantum computing emerging in 2 years is virtually impossible, but in practice I do believe they are both about as likely.
NaturalViolence Wrote:I think you mean "if the initial breakthroughs are made".Yeah.
NaturalViolence Wrote:Each day you win they increase linearly (since the number of remaining days decreases). But once you lose it drops to 0%. Either way you look at it that's not dropping exponentially.
But look at it this way: say you have a 1/1,000,000 chance of winning. The chance of winning for two days in a row is 1/1,000,000,000,000. The chance of winning three days in a row is 1/1*10^-18. And so on. That's an exponential drop.
NaturalViolence Wrote:x86 is a language. As such no matter how dramatically you change the underlying hardware it will always be possible to implement as long as binary is still used as the numeral system.
Good point. I wonder if computers working in tertiary will ever be more than a strange curiosity though. Probably not... =(