(03-11-2014, 07:03 AM)NaturalViolence Wrote: The odds of quantum computers being in your living room in 10 years are probably lower than you winning the lottery every single day for the rest of your life.
Actually, I wonder, if you treat the emergence of widespread quantum computing as a precise and short (as opposed to gradual, over the course of years or decades) event whose likelihood rises the further you go in time, and you play the lottery every day, at which point will the likelihood of you winning the lottery every single day up to that point be equal to the likelihood of quantum computers becoming widespread at that point in time?
Honestly, because IRL quantum computing isn't a chance-based event, but rather depends on how much money and time is put into research, the answer would probably be pretty absurd. Especially, provided they become widespread at all, they will do so within a reasonable amount of time - possibly 60-70 years; and if more money is put into it to accelerate research, once the initial breakthroughs are made, it could be done much faster. While the odds of you having a winning streak of lottery are astronomically low and drop exponentially. So I think that a couple of years or less would be a reasonable answer to my question - probably not 10.
Anyway, back on topic, if we extend the prediction from 10 years on from today to 20+, I think that at some point, x86 is gonna go. It just can't stay forever. The change, however, will probably be gradual, and so there will be plenty of time for Dolphin to get ported to the new system.