2025….

[noah]

I'm back I guess.

So I guess my question is relevant since this is Delfino Plaza. In 2025, how much different will the world be? Is it true that cable TV may die out and be replaced by streaming media over the Internet? Or that home phone lines won't exist in houses? What good can come? I don't feel good thinking about the future and the "advancements" coming. Like why would magazines only be available online and no longer in print? Does anyone care?! Think about it! I would much rather look at a printed page I can touch and feel instead of straining my eyes and getting my screen all greasy on a device. And will tablets kill the PC? I think tablets are just a waste of time. Why do you need a smaller, less powerful PC that can do less? Desktops are so useful and tablets are so annoying, yet people just keep buying them and no one is buying PCs since consumers think Windows 8 is tablets only! So you stop buying computers because they are too much like tablets, then you buy tablets? WTF. Btw Windows 8 is great and works even better on non-touchscreen. Experts say desktops and laptops will die and Android is the future. That makes me angry! I would rather use a Commodore 64 for everyday work than a knockoff computer that sucks(android tablet/iPad)! I can elaborate on why I think tablets are not the answer if someone disagrees.

Also, approximately when will just about every Magnavox Odysse be: a. impossible to find and/or buy, or b. no working models remain. That will be the beginning of the death of classic gaming. I want to collect classic games from even before 2600, to sucky consoles like the Philips CDI, up to GameCube era (where classic gaming ends IMO). I feel like I should just quit thinking about it though because the NES maybe won't exist in 2025 (year I'm out of college and have my own home). I'm so… scared. Someone please tell me I'm wrong and the downfall won't happen until like 2040 and then I can finally stop worrying.

Well feel free to answer any of these questions, no need to answer them all unless you have answers for them all. (I also didn't spell check or anything)

[lamedude]

Don't get to comfortable the revolution will need you⸮

[noah]

Of everything I said I want people to respond to the thing about video games the most because I get so worried about it.

[NaturalViolence]

noah Wrote:no one is buying PCs since consumers think Windows 8 is tablets only

[noah]

Well that's what kids say at school. "I'm sticking with my Windows 7 PC because Windows 8 sucks without a touchscreen!"

[ExtremeDude2]

brb installing Windows 8

[NaturalViolence]

noah Wrote:Well that's what kids say at school.

Flawless source for an objective analysis of future industry wide trends!

So you're basically saying that nobody will buy PCs now that windows 8 exists? And you're implying that this will somehow go on forever?

People haven't stopped buying PCs. Just look at the sales data. Some people have temporarily held off on upgrading due to an irrational viewpoint based on peer pressure. Anyone who thinks PCs are done needs to try typing an essay on anything else.

[Xtreme2damax]

Well by then I hope I can at least get decent internet other than satellite in the semi-rural area I live in. I can dream that satellite technology may improve so much by then that data caps become nonexistent and much lower latency but that is highly unlikely.

[noah]

Well I didn't mean it like that lol. I was not trying to explain I was just saying why kids at school don't buy computers anymore and my brother is always telling me that no one is buying computers and android tablets are so much better. I was basically saying if this is the future, the future sucks. I just don't see any advantages of replacing a PC with a tablet. So are you saying my brother is wrong and PCs are selling well? According to him he has read articles on these android/google sites saying that android is the way of the future and they will kill the PC based on sales. Please tell me he's off. Please.

[Shonumi]

Relatively speaking, the PC industry as a whole has contracted consistently for a while now (six quarters? I forget the number but it's been a year). Nearly every analyst from Gartner to IDC (the ones I read at least) claimed that Windows 8 would spark a revival in PC shipments and sales, but that never materialized, and the market is still contracting last time I checked.

The perception that you and your friends may have been exposed to is one that we're living in a "Post-PC" world, a term as asinine as it is a misnomer. Tablets and smartphones are assuming some limited roles that PCs once held exclusively (e.g. checking your email, browsing the web, "casual" gaming, watching videos, browsing pictures). For your average user, perhaps these activities amount to a significant portion of his or her time spent with a computing device, hence this person can largely displace the PC for a tablet in these uses. The fact of the matter is, however, that there are many activities that can't be off-loaded to tablets, either not yet or not ever. Things like professional photo & video editing, 3D rendering software, software development, or even mildly advanced document editing (complex Word docs, Publisher or InDesign) don't seem to be the forte of tablets, and I don't see that changing any time soon (I'll explain each in detail if anyone wants me to). Contrary to what Windows Surface - and to a lesser extent Intel - want to project, tablets are primarily suited for consumption, not production. It's a confluence of different elements such as form factor, input methodology, and workflow of available OSes and apps that have limited tablets to this role, in my opinion. It's not just a matter or having a CPU/GPU combo that can match an entry level laptop. Regardless, the short end of it is that tablets are very suited to a subset of many of the activities that PCs also have, so naturally when you have a cheaper, "sexier" product such as this, it's going to eat into existing market share of PCs. But there are still activities to which a PC or laptop ends up being vastly more efficient.

I've said this before on Dolphin's IRC channel, but it's not like the PC market could continually grow forever. Perpetual growth is logically unsustainable at some point. All markets reach their cap and either level off, drop, or a combination of the two. Everyone has their underwear bunched up in Analyst Land because of the PC market contraction, and apparently ordinary users and observers like yourself are worried. But what about it? The PC market couldn't and can't increase shipments quarter by quarter indefinitely; at some point you reach market saturation where people have enough PCs that are "good enough" to warrant less demand less often. Throw enough PCs at the people, and eventually the people will have enough PCs. The market until a few years ago had been surging, but it's obvious now that people have had their fill, so to speak, so there's room for more devices. There's still a need for PCs, but the hot demand is cooling off. Some people say it's tanking; I say it's normalizing. It's not going to peter out completely and disappear in the next few years, but PC demand is going to realign itself to lower levels and eventually stabilize.

Also, don't worry about old consoles disappearing. This is just idle speculation, but imagine if everyday users could apply 3D printing techniques to custom circuitry (I'm sure something like this exists on the industrial/commercial level, but think consumer level for a minute). Smart enough kids get themselves all of the necessary schematics (a lot of the circuitry for the Game Boy, for example, is readily available online as images) and figure out what it takes to build their own GB or NES, or whatever, then the project goes viral online and such. Like I said, it's idle talk, but that's why we have a future, to fill our heads with fanciful ideas and such. Failing that, just go over to James Rolf's house (The Nerd from AVGN); I'm sure he's got every system known to man. He seems to know how to keep them in working order too.